Posts Tagged ‘George Friedman’
From Stratfor founder and Chief Intelligence Officer George Friedman – September 25
Senator McCain has issued position papers and made statements about his intended foreign policy. Like all Presidents, he would also be getting input from a variety of others, principally from his own party. This second analysis analyzes the foreign policy position of Sen. McCain and the Republican Party.
John McCain is the Republican candidate for president. This means he is embedded in the Republican tradition. That tradition has two roots, which are somewhat at odds with each other: One root is found in Theodore Roosevelt’s variety of internationalism, and the other in Henry Cabot Lodge’s opposition to the League of Nations. Those roots still exist in the Republican Party. But accommodations to the reality the Democrats created after World War II — and that Eisenhower, Nixon and, to some extent, Reagan followed — have overlain them. In many ways, the Republican tradition of foreign policy is therefore more complex than the Democratic tradition.
Roosevelt and the United States as Great Power
More than any other person, Roosevelt introduced the United States to the idea that it had become a great power. During the Spanish-American War, in which he had enthusiastically participated, the United States took control of the remnants of the Spanish empire. During his presidency a few years later, Roosevelt authorized the first global tour by a U.S. fleet, which was designed to announce the arrival of the United States with authority. The fleet was both impressive and surprising to many great powers, which at the time tended to dismiss the United States.
CLICK HERE for the entire article (this segment reprinted with Permission)
The final installment in this series will be produced after the debate. This is NOT an effort to call a “winner” or “loser.” That’s for pundits, not an intelligence service. This will be an analysis of the candidates’ statements and positions.
From Stratfor founder and Chief Intelligence Officer George Friedman – September 24
Senator Obama has issued position papers and made statements about his intended foreign policy. Like all Presidents, he would also be getting input from a variety of others, principally from his own party. This second analysis analyzes the foreign policy position of Sen. Obama and the Democratic Party.
Barack Obama is the Democratic candidate for president. His advisers in foreign policy are generally Democrats. Together they carry with them an institutional memory of the Democratic Party’s approach to foreign policy, and are an expression of the complexity and divisions of that approach. Like their Republican counterparts, in many ways they are going to be severely constrained as to what they can do both by the nature of the global landscape and American resources. But to some extent, they will also be constrained and defined by the tradition they come from. Understanding that tradition and Obama’s place is useful in understanding what an Obama presidency would look like in foreign affairs.
The most striking thing about the Democratic tradition is that it presided over the beginnings of the three great conflicts that defined the 20th century: Woodrow Wilson and World War I, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and World War II, and Harry S. Truman and the Cold War. (At this level of analysis, we will treat the episodes of the Cold War such as Korea, Vietnam or Grenada as simply subsets of one conflict.) This is most emphatically not to say that had Republicans won the presidency in 1916, 1940 or 1948, U.S. involvement in those wars could have been avoided.
CLICK HERE for the entire article (this segment reprinted with Permission)
The final installment in this series will be produced after the debate. This is NOT an effort to call a “winner” or “loser.” That’s for pundits, not an intelligence service. This will be an analysis of the candidates’ statements and positions.
FROM Stratfor founder and Chief Intelligence Officer George Friedman – September 23, 2008
The above link goes to the first installment of a four-part report from Stratfor founder and Chief Intelligence Officer, George Friedman, on the United States Presidential Debate on Foreign Policy.
“On Friday night, every government intelligence agency in the world will be glued to television sets watching the US Presidential Debate on foreign policy. Government intelligence agencies won’t be rooting for one candidate or the other, nor are they trying to call the “winner” of the debate – or even ultimately the election.
“A government intelligence agency’s goal is to provide national policy makers an unbiased analysis of contingencies. In this instance, they’re attempting to answer two questions, “What will US foreign policy look like under an Obama or McCain administration? And how will that impact our country?”
“Stratfor is a private-sector, independent intelligence service and approaches the debates from a similar perspective. We have zero preference for one candidate or the other, but we are passionately interested in analyzing and forecasting the geopolitical impact of the election.
“The essence of our business is non-partisan, dispassionate analysis and forecasting. For individuals in today’s global world – oil traders and missionaries, soldiers and equity analysts, educators and travelers – Stratfor provides the intelligence analysis that has long been exclusively available to governments.
“This introductory piece frames the questions that the next president will face. Regardless of a given candidate’s policy preferences, there are logistical and geographical constraints that shape US and foreign options. The purpose of this analysis is to describe the geopolitical landscape for the next administration. The analysis concludes with a list of questions for the debate that define the parameters facing both candidates.”
Stratfor offers the following list of questions facing both candidates :
- If the United States removes its forces from Iraq slowly as both of you advocate, where will the troops come from to deal with Afghanistan and protect allies in the former Soviet Union?
- The Russians sent 120,000 troops to Afghanistan and failed to pacify the country. How many troops do you think are necessary?
- Do you believe al Qaeda prime is still active and worth pursuing?
- Do you believe the Iranians are capable of producing a deliverable nuclear weapon during your term in office?
- How do you plan to persuade the Pakistani government to go after the Taliban, and what support can you provide them if they do?
- Do you believe the United States should station troops in the Baltic states, in Ukraine and Georgia as well as in other friendly countries to protect them from Russia?
- Do you feel that NATO remains a viable alliance, and are the Europeans carrying enough of the burden?
- Do you believe that Mexico represents a national security issue for the United States?
- Do you believe that China represents a strategic challenge to the United States?
- Do you feel that there has been tension between the United States and Israel over the Georgia issue?
PLEASE READ Part 1 of this important US Foreign Policy report from Stratfor
McCain Sucks, Palin Sucks = No Bush left behind 